The latest figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reveal a cautious but welcome development: Nigeria’s headline inflation rate declined to 22.97% year-on-year in May 2025. This marks the second consecutive month of easing inflation, following April’s rate of 23.71% and March’s 24.23%. On a month-to-month basis, the inflation rate also slowed, falling to 1.53% in May from 1.86% in April and 3.90% in March — indicating that the pace of rising prices is gradually decelerating.
However, beneath this surface-level improvement lies a more complex picture. The year-to-date (YTD) inflation rate climbed to 21.35% in May, up from 19.52% in April. This suggests that although prices are no longer rising as fast month-to-month, the overall cost of living remains significantly higher compared to the start of the year.
Food inflation, which hits Nigerian households the hardest, tells a mixed story. The year-on-year food inflation rate dropped for the fourth consecutive month, declining from 26.1% in January to 21.14% in May. Yet, the cost of food remains unpredictable. The month-on-month food inflation rate inched up slightly from 2.06% in April to 2.19% in May — a sign that short-term pressures such as transportation costs, market disruptions, or seasonal factors may still be influencing food prices.
Urban areas recorded a headline inflation rate of 23.14% year-on-year in May, slightly higher than rural areas at 22.70%. Monthly inflation in urban regions rose modestly to 1.40% from 1.18% in April, while rural areas experienced a sharper monthly increase at 1.83%, even though this was still a significant drop from the 3.56% recorded in April. This divergence may point to disparities in price stability between city centers and rural markets, potentially due to supply chain differences or variations in consumer demand.
Overall, the data shows that inflation is cooling, but not yet conquered. While headline figures are improving, food prices and cumulative inflation since the start of the year remain key challenges. The government and monetary authorities must continue to stabilize supply chains, support agricultural productivity, and manage monetary policy carefully to prevent these early gains from being reversed.
In essence, May 2025 gives Nigeria cautious optimism. But for millions of Nigerians still grappling with high prices, the relief may feel distant — and the real work is far from over.
